Can Democrats Keep This Up?
A big off-year election result matters, but there's a long way to go
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So here we are, publishing again after our summer and fall hiatus. It’s been great to see how many of you checked-in, asking for the newsletter during our break. Thank you. And thank you for sticking with us.
The MAGA Agenda is Not Popular
Off-year local elections have never mattered more than they do right at this moment. After nearly a year of sometimes-astonishingly futile resistance from Democrats at the national level, the party received a clear message from voters last week—the MAGA agenda is becoming more unpopular by the minute.
The real lesson I took from the elections is that “I want to do everything I can to keep you safe and make your life better” is a winning political message, and it may just be that simple. Don’t take my word for it, here’s Trump’s top political advisor saying exactly that to Politico in the election aftermath:
Sure, essentially every winning candidate was in some way a rebuke to Trump, but the common thread here is still the affordability of everyday life. There’s certainly a good portion of voters who turned out to elect officials up and down the ballot that can oppose National Guard deployments in cities, remarkably cruel “immigration” raids, and the now-countless other tactics of fear and intimidation coming from the White House.
These things are terrible, but I still don’t think that they tangibly touch enough people to be the deciding factor in the 2026 midterms. One, there is a depressing amount of the population that is simply un- and/or mis-informed on the state of the country right at this moment. As we have seen thrice with elections with Trump on the ballot, warnings of democratic backsliding and outright fascism tend to fall relatively flat as a ballot-box issue.
The vast majority of the population is simply not pondering the concept and execution of representative democracy at the macro level very often. The threats and warnings have all proven to be true and then some, but groceries being 25% more expensive, unaffordable housing, and stagnant wages in a sluggish economy are what will turn the electoral tide.
As a party, I urge Democrats to understand and embrace their often-touted big tent nature. Overwhelming victories in New Jersey and Virginia are the real story at the national level. Zohran Mamdani is getting the headlines—as he should!—but, in terms of the national electorate, NYC is a total outlier. The results in Virginia and Maryland, complete sweeps at every level for Democrats, were won by candidates focused on affordability and positive, solution-oriented messaging.
Abigail Spanberger won the Virginia governorship with largely the same core message as Mamdani, but she is far from being a Democratic Socialist. The same is true for New Jersey’s new governor, Mikie Sherrill. Former roommates in D.C., these two women are centrist candidates running in states where more moderate positions work.
These three candidates have their differences, but their core message was a winner. There isn’t much in the way of good economic news, Trump owns the economy. Immigrants and trade are so much of the economy and the administration has gone full police state on the former and 1700s Europe-era mercantilist on the latter. It’s a recipe for disaster, it’s playing out in real time, and it’s destroying people’s lives.
Compare and contrast these stories:
Working families will go hungry without SNAP benefits:
If ACA subsidies expire, cost increases will put health insurance out of reach for millions:
The federal government’s reckless military incursions into our cities will continue:
These stories are political ads that write themselves. They are also extremely real problems affecting people’s lives in profound and often detrimental ways. Imagine being a GOP voter who put in the work, drove your party to control every branch of government, and the House has been out for a month, and the Senate can’t do anything because Senate Republicans think cheaper health insurance is a “non-starter.” I’d be livid!
On top of Trump’s continuing efforts to dismantle the U.S. government, his family is raking in money hand-over-fist. The corruption is so blatant, so ostentatious, it makes me wonder how we can recover from this as a country.
The response at the national level to the utter chaos and criminality of Trump 2.0 has been woefully insufficient—Senate Democrats are still voting to confirm Trump judges, for example. The longest government shutdown in our nation’s history—Donald Trump-led administrations hold the top two spots on this dubious list—has the veneer of a political “win” for national Democrats. But, as much as I agree with stalling Republicans at every available opportunity, it’s not hard to see that a “win” during this government shutdown will exact a very steep price.
It’s become indisputable: The most effective resistance to the Trump administration is at the state and local levels. The people in the streets protecting their neighbors, feeding their neighbors, looking out for their neighbors are doing the Lord’s work right now, and it’s well past time for our elected representatives to start representing. Positive, optimistic campaigns (relatively speaking) that win seem so unique in this moment.
But, this country is teetering in all facets, and we need spine and solutions from public officials and we need them now.
*** Here’s an interview I did with Mamdani in May 2020 when he was an unknown candidate for the New York State Assembly.
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The 2020 time capsule interview including candidate Mamdani is amazing!
Nice to see you back here!